Date: 12 February 2018
North West Province
Period: 12 February until 18 February
A fairly settled and mostly dry working week is expected over Gauteng, Mpumulanga, Limpopo, N parts of KZN and E parts of the North West until the weekend. Over the weekend thunderstorm activity is expected to become more widespread, particularly over the Limpopo and E parts of the North West.
With settled conditions expected over N parts of South Africa until the weekend, unsettled and wetter conditions are likely over E parts of the Northern Cape, E parts of the Eastern Cape, S parts of KZN, W parts of the North West and the whole of the Free State. Over these areas afternoon thunderstorms are likely to be quite widespread at times and total accumulated rainfall totals could reach 80-100mm particularly over Lesotho, S parts of KZN and SE parts of the Free State. The majority of this rain is likely to fall between today (Monday) and Wednesday. In the far W of the country, thunderstorms are also expected over W parts of the Northern Cape and the majority of the Western Cape until Thursday, unfortunately although there could be some thunder and lightning at times, no significant rainfall is expected at this stage over the drought stricken SW Cape.
Over the weekend a weak cold front is likely to pass through the SW Cape, as this moves up the coast it should cause any thunderstorm activity to ease over central parts with thunderstorms becoming confined to NE parts of the country. As the cooler air collides with humid air over KZN, there is the risk of some energetic thunderstorms, particularly over W and central areas of the province.
Storms containing large hail: (any mention of thunderstorms in the forecast automatically presumes a very low chance of hailstorms)
Medium chance over the weekend over W and central areas of KZN.
Intense lightning: (any mention of thunderstorms in the forecast automatically presumes a low chance of intense lightning)
Medium chance today(Monday) until Thursday over western and central parts of the country, becoming confined to central areas of the country on Thursday and Friday and over NE parts of the country over the weekend.
Flash flooding: (any mention of thunderstorms in the forecast automatically presumes a very low chance of flash flooding)
High chance today over E parts of Lesotho the far NE interior of the Eastern Cape and southern and central parts of KZN - This area includes Pietermaritzburg but Durban is not expected to be affected.
High chance tomorrow over Lesotho SE parts of the Free State and SW parts of KZN. - This area includes Estcourt, Ladysmith, Harrismith, Bethlehem, Ficksburg, Ladybrand and Maseru. Durban, Pietermaritzburg and Bloemfontein are not expected to be affected.
Medium chance on the weekend over Limpopo and E parts of the North West.
Fire risk: Very high today over the SW Cape due to strong winds coupled with the risk of lightning. High chance tomorrow in the SW Cape due to lightning and hot temperatures (winds will ease tomorrow).
Medium along the Mpumalanga lowveld on Thursday and Friday - temperatures may reach the high 30ºCs.
Other: Strong E to NE winds are likely over the weekend along the KZN and Eastern Cape coastline.
Very high 90-100% chance.
High 80% chance.
Medium 60% chance.
Low 40% chance.
Very low 20% chance.
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